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Its getting very interesting at the bottom of the Premiership after a thrilling weekend which saw Middlesbrough steal at point at Arsenal and Fulham secure a surprise 1-0 home win over Everton, and the pressure really is on these two sides coming into this game.

Birmingham have picked up under Alex McLeish, with only one defeat in their last five, which came last week at Portsmouth 4-2. Over the last few weeks they have secured a win over Tottenham, and draws with Arsenal, West Ham and Derby, and it seems they really are putting in a fight to retain their Premiership place. They now face Newcastle, who are now on the verge of falling apart after Kevin Keegan's return has not exactly gone to plan, and it has in fact become something of a nightmare.

Well, even I am getting tired of talking about how bad Newcastle are at the moment. The toon have failed to win a game since the arrival of the talismatic Keegan, although his past fame with Newcastle is slowly turning against him now as the fans really do face the prospect of a relegation battle. The last time Newcastle won was a 1-0 win over Fulham on December 15th, and since then they really have been poor, with nine defeats in their last eleven.

Birmingham are priced at 13/10 for the home win, the draw is 12/5 while Keegan to achieve his first win is 12/5 also.

Bet365 offer a free £250 bet on this game and instead of going for the Birmingham home win I'm on the Over 2.5 @ 11/10.  If we look at Newcastle's last four aways, they read 3-0, 4-1, 3-0, 6-1. In fairness these were against Liverpool, Aston Villa, Arsenal and Man Utd, but this will do nothing for the confidence for the team, and in all honesty their defence is all over the place.

Both these teams have trouble defending, which is not surprising for a Keegan side, while Birmingham have conceded a goal in each of their last four home games. Going forward, Birmingham do look a threat with Forssell and McFadden looking a danger to any side at the moment. The 11/10 is just big enough for me to get on the goals.

I've said it before but its now time for the £110,000 a week man Michael Owen to stand up and deliver for the side, as if they lose this today, the Toon Army really could be playing Championship football next year. © Free-Bets.co.uk 2008

 

Verdict:: Over 2.5 @ 11/10

 

 


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